Polymarket Bets Signal $5K Ethereum by August-End – Asia AM Snapshot

ETH Climbs Above $4,600 as $5K Bets Grow—But Liquidity Shift to TRON Raises Red Flags

Ethereum is on the verge of reclaiming record territory, trading above $4,600 after a 10% daily gain fueled by growing market conviction around a potential U.S. rate cut in September. Traders are watching closely as ETH approaches its all-time high of $4,876 from 2021, with bullish bets accelerating.

Prediction platform Polymarket shows traders increasingly confident that ETH could break $5,000 by month-end, while odds have risen to 28% for a move above $5,800 before August closes.

The rally has helped chip away at bitcoin dominance, which fell from 65% to 59% as capital rotates into altcoins.

Still, not all metrics are pointing to smooth sailing. Glassnode analysts note that ETH is nearing the +1 standard deviation “Active Realized Price” band near $4.7K—a level that has previously triggered significant selling.

And under the surface, Ethereum may be facing a growing structural risk: liquidity flight to TRON.

A recent CryptoQuant report shows Ethereum is increasingly being used as a liquidity source for TRON’s USDT economy. On August 9, a record $7.7 million in ETH was bridged to TRON and converted to USDT. A similar trend was seen on June 25, when $19 million in ERC-20 tokens (mostly USDC) made the same jump.

Crucially, there’s little capital returning from TRON to Ethereum, suggesting a one-way outflow. If this continues, Ethereum’s DeFi activity and on-chain revenues may come under pressure, even if price momentum remains strong in the short term.

“Over time, Ethereum risks becoming a wholesale liquidity layer for competing networks,” the report warned, noting that this could limit ETH’s ability to sustain higher valuations if users increasingly settle elsewhere.

For now, the $5K target dominates sentiment—but the long-term picture is growing more complex.

Market Snapshot

BTC: Bitcoin hovers at $119,943 (+0.4%), holding ground as ETF outflows and ETH strength cap upside near $123K.
ETH: Ethereum trades above $4,600 amid growing bets on a 50 bps rate cut.
Gold: Gold climbs to $3,350 as inflation data fuels Fed pivot hopes; soft U.S.-China rhetoric keeps gains in check.
S&P 500: Equities rally to record highs as July CPI meets forecasts, reinforcing September rate cut expectations.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei gains 1% at the open, extending momentum from Tuesday’s record close.