Odds of U.S. Military Action Against Iran Fall on Polymarket Amid Trump Team’s Push for Tehran Dialogue

Polymarket Traders Reduce Bets on U.S. Strike Against Iran as Diplomatic Hopes Rise

Expectations for a U.S. military strike on Iran have cooled notably, with traders on Polymarket lowering the odds amid reports that Donald Trump’s team may be seeking a diplomatic breakthrough.

As of Tuesday, the prediction market showed just a 46% chance of U.S. military action against Iran by June 30, down from a peak of 66.9% overnight. The shift follows an Axios report that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff might meet with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi this week to discuss reviving nuclear talks and easing tensions with Israel.

Despite the dip in strike probabilities, some Polymarket participants remain hawkish. One user remarked, “Trump should join the fray: his troops need the experience in postpostmodern warfare,” signaling continued support for military action.

Tensions have been elevated since Israel conducted airstrikes and drone attacks on Iranian military and nuclear sites last Friday, prompting retaliatory actions from Tehran.

The geopolitical turmoil initially sent Bitcoin (BTC) tumbling to $102,750, alongside safe-haven flows into the Japanese yen and a decline in U.S. equities. BTC has since recovered to $106,700, though S&P 500 futures remain down 0.7% at the time of writing.

The Trump camp has yet to formally address the Axios report. However, in a late Monday post on Truth Social, Trump reaffirmed his stance that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons and urged an immediate evacuation of Tehran.