NYDIG: Bitcoin Tracks Liquidity, Not Inflation
Bitcoin’s long-standing reputation as “digital gold” and a hedge against inflation doesn’t hold up under data analysis, according to new research from NYDIG.
In its latest weekly report, Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s Global Head of Research, found that Bitcoin’s relationship with inflation is weak and inconsistent, suggesting that consumer price levels have little bearing on the cryptocurrency’s market behavior.
“We know the community likes to frame Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, but the data just isn’t supportive of that,” Cipolaro wrote. “Correlations with inflationary measures are neither consistent nor particularly strong.”
Gold, traditionally seen as the benchmark inflation hedge, also failed to demonstrate a reliable positive relationship with inflation. In fact, its correlations often turned negative, challenging the long-held belief that rising inflation automatically lifts gold prices.
Instead, both assets appear far more sensitive to real interest rates and liquidity conditions. Historically, falling real rates have boosted gold, and Bitcoin now seems to mirror that dynamic as it becomes increasingly integrated into global financial markets.
“From a macro standpoint, gold continues to act as a hedge against real rates,” Cipolaro said. “Bitcoin, on the other hand, has evolved into a liquidity barometer — responding to the availability of capital, not the cost of living.”
As of publication, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading near $115,046, according to CoinDesk data.
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