Muted U.S. Inflation Data Puts $200K Bitcoin Target Back on the Table, Says Analyst

Bitcoin Bulls Re-Energized as Soft Inflation Data Opens Door to $200K, Says 21Shares Strategist

The latest U.S. inflation report came in softer than expected on Wednesday, reinvigorating bullish sentiment in the crypto market and pushing bitcoin’s year-end target as high as $200,000, according to 21Shares’ Matt Mena.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% in May, undercutting forecasts of a 0.2% gain and easing concerns that new tariffs might stoke further price pressures. The data, released by the Labor Department, suggests that inflation continues to cool — a development investors believe could fast-track monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

“This inflation print may be the spark Bitcoin needed,” Mena, a crypto research strategist at 21Shares, told CoinDesk. “A breakout beyond the $105K–$110K range could swiftly propel BTC toward $120K, and we anticipate hitting $138.5K by late summer if this momentum holds.”

But Mena sees even greater upside on the horizon. “If these macro conditions persist and institutional interest continues to rise, a $200K bitcoin by December is well within reach,” he added.

At press time, bitcoin was trading at $108,440, according to CoinDesk data, extending gains in the wake of the CPI release.

Notably, prices for durable goods — often influenced by tariffs — fell 0.1% month-over-month in May, or 1.3% on an annualized basis, suggesting that recent trade policy shifts under President Trump have yet to significantly impact consumers.

Annual CPI rose 2.4%, while core inflation held steady at 2.8%, mirroring April’s pace. The data bolstered market expectations for rate cuts, with traders now pricing in 47 basis points of easing this year — up from 42 earlier in the week. A September cut is now viewed as likely, with October fully priced in.

“The Fed has more room to maneuver,” Mena noted, adding that monetary policy is just one piece of the puzzle.

According to Mena, Bitcoin also stands to benefit from structural tailwinds including institutional accumulation, expanding sovereign adoption, and anticipated stablecoin legislation. “These developments could unleash a new wave of capital into the space,” he said.

“ETF inflows, treasury allocations, and state-led Strategic Bitcoin Reserve programs are converging at a time when macro clarity is improving,” Mena concluded. “Bitcoin’s moment may be arriving faster than many expected.”

21Shares, a pioneer in crypto ETPs, continues to see long-term structural upside in Bitcoin as it becomes more integrated into the global financial system.