Bitcoin’s Monthly MACD Turns Bearish, Signaling Potential Downtrend
Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a key momentum indicator flash red, raising caution for traders. The monthly MACD histogram printed its first red bar below zero in November as prices dropped over 17%, marking a shift from bullish to bearish momentum. This suggests that the bull run starting near $20,000 in early November has ended, with bears taking control.
Historically, bearish MACD crossovers have preceded deeper corrections. After BTC fell from around $70,000 to $50,000 in late 2021, the MACD turned negative in January 2022, signaling further declines to below $20,000. Similar patterns occurred in 2018 and 2014, preceding bear market intensifications.
Current macro risks—including Japan’s fiscal strain, a resilient dollar index and Treasury yields, and spot ETF outflows—add to the bearish outlook. Immediate support sits near $84,500, with further downside to April’s $74,500 low and the 2021 peak near $70,000 if broken.
Ethereum (ETH) also shows caution, with a confirmed death cross signaling potential short-term weakness relative to its long-term trend, though its reliability as a standalone indicator has been mixed.
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