Mixed Start for Figure on Wall Street as KBW and BofA Differ in Forecasts

Figure’s Public Debut Draws Mixed Reactions From Wall Street Banks

Newly public fintech Figure (FIGR) is earning praise for its early dominance in tokenized credit markets, but analysts remain split on its growth potential and regulatory risks.

KBW Bullish on Expansion

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) initiated coverage with an “outperform” rating and a 12-month target of $48.50, signaling 17.5% upside. The bank highlighted Figure’s market share, estimating 73% of private tokenized credit and 39% of all tokenized real-world assets under its control.

Founded by former SoFi CEO Mike Cagney, Figure went public in September, climbing 12% since its IPO. Its platform tokenizes HELOCs and connects borrowers to investors through a fully integrated system that includes loan origination, distribution, and a digital asset marketplace. KBW sees upside in expanding into first-lien mortgages, personal loans, and third-party asset tokenization through tools like Figure Exchange.

Bernstein Shares Optimism

Bernstein also rates Figure as “outperform” with a $54 target, comparing the firm’s tokenization of traditional assets to the way stablecoins transformed payments, creating faster, more efficient lending markets.

BofA More Cautious

Bank of America, in contrast, gave a “neutral” rating with a $41 price target, citing execution, regulatory, and HELOC concentration risks. BofA flagged Figure Connect, the company’s lender-capital matching marketplace, as the main growth driver, projecting it will contribute 75% of revenue growth from 2024–2027.

Divergent Views Reflect Uncertainty

While all acknowledge Figure’s leadership in tokenized credit, opinions diverge on scaling into broader fintech markets. The gap in price targets — $48.50 from KBW vs. $41 from BofA — underscores investor uncertainty over whether Figure’s blockchain infrastructure can move from niche adoption to mainstream finance.