Markets Watch: Payrolls Data May Drive 4% Moves in XRP and SOL

As the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report approaches, implied volatility suggests moderate price swings across major cryptocurrencies, with XRP and Solana (SOL) showing slightly higher potential movement.

According to Volmex, Bitcoin’s (BTC) one-day implied volatility stands at 43.8, signaling an expected 24-hour swing of 2.29%. Ether (ETH) follows with 3.7%, XRP 4%, and SOL 4.86%, reflecting heightened sensitivity in mid-cap tokens. Analysts note that a stronger-than-expected NFP reading could temper expectations for Fed rate cuts, potentially pressuring risk assets.

Derivatives Insights

Ether’s open interest in USDT- and USD-denominated perpetual contracts dropped to 1.93 million ETH, a four-week low, raising concerns about sustaining recent gains.
Solana perpetual contracts fell below 11 million SOL, risking the validation of a four-week uptrend.
Bitcoin CME futures remain subdued, but options activity climbed with 47.23K BTC in open interest, worth $5.21 billion, the highest since November. Traders are buying inexpensive out-of-the-money puts in preparation for potential NFP surprises.
Offshore exchanges mirror the trend: ETH futures OI dropped below 2 million, while the three-month premium rose from 5% to 7%. BTC puts continue to trade at a premium across all tenors, signaling caution.
Seven-day volatility risk premium neared zero, suggesting investors currently see no extra hedging premium for short-term price swings, despite the upcoming jobs report.

OTC desk activity showed mixed flows, including a BTC $116K call and an ETH $4K put, indicating strategic hedging ahead of data.

Token Spotlight: Memecoins

The memecoin sector, dormant since early 2025 hype around TRUMP and MELANIA tokens, shows signs of revival. Those earlier tokens have plunged 88% and 95%, underscoring fading speculative interest.

In contrast, MemeCore, a new layer-1 blockchain focused on memecoin utility in DeFi, surged 261% over the past week. Activity was fueled by the MemeX liquidity festival, offering $5.7 million in rewards, with 85% of trading volume on PancakeSwap, highlighting retail-driven demand.

Renewed memecoin momentum could eventually spill over to Solana-based platforms like Pump.fun, whose daily revenues have fallen from $15.8 million in January to $1.5–$2.5 million this week.