Major Whale Moves Set Up Critical September Challenge for Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP

Bitcoin, Ether, XRP Navigate September Test After Record Whale Sell-Off

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered just below $112,000 on Monday as investors balanced the impact of the largest whale sell-off in over two years against signs of long-term accumulation and steady altcoin performance.

According to CryptoQuant, more than 100,000 BTC—worth roughly $12.7 billion—have moved out of major wallets over the past 30 days. Analyst caueconomy described it as “the largest coin distribution this year,” noting whale reserves fell by 114,920 BTC, temporarily pushing spot prices below $108,000. The scale of these sales echoes the aggressive trimming seen in July 2022.

“The portfolios of major players are still shrinking, which may continue to pressure Bitcoin in the coming weeks,” the analyst said. Softer ETF inflows and thinner trading volumes have left the market more sensitive to macroeconomic catalysts.

On the upside, longer-term indicators remain constructive. Bitcoin is down only 13% from its mid-August all-time high, a much shallower decline compared with historical pullbacks. CryptoQuant analyst Dave the Wave pointed out that the one-year moving average has risen from $52,000 a year ago to $94,000, and is expected to surpass $100,000 in October, suggesting a structural uptrend.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, highlighted supply metrics supporting this outlook. “Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a record 14.3 million BTC, with more than 70% held in wallets with minimal spending history. Confidence in long-term value remains evident,” he said. Lee expects BTC to stabilize and gain momentum within a $105,000–$118,000 range, supported by ETF flows and bullish MACD signals.

Ethereum (ETH) traded near $4,307, with projections of $4,100–$4,600 if ETF demand persists. Upcoming network upgrades and DeFi developments could also drive independent gains.

Altcoins showed modest strength: XRP rose 2.3% to $2.96, Solana (SOL) climbed 3.2% to $214, Dogecoin extended a 10.5% weekly gain to $0.236, and Cardano (ADA) added 6% to $0.865.

Market sentiment remains cautious. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that total crypto market capitalization increased 2.5% last week to $3.85 trillion but is still below the 50-day average. “This is a worrying indicator of underlying risk appetite,” he said, noting that the sentiment index dipped into fear at 44 over the weekend before recovering to 51 on Monday.

September’s historical weakness adds an additional layer of caution. Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, emphasized that upcoming U.S. inflation data could steer market direction. “Higher-than-expected numbers would pressure Bitcoin and Ethereum, while lower numbers could trigger a rally,” he said.