June U.S. CPI Matches Forecast with 0.3% Rise; Core Reading Surprises Favorably at 0.2%

Bitcoin Recovers Slightly as U.S. Inflation Data Boosts Rate Cut Hopes

Bitcoin saw a modest rebound to $117,300 after plunging from record highs above $124,000 just over a day earlier, buoyed by fresh U.S. inflation figures that landed mostly in line with expectations.

Inflation in the U.S. picked up in June but stayed close to forecasts, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve could move to cut interest rates as early as September.

The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% for the month, matching estimates and up from 0.1% in May. On a yearly basis, CPI climbed 2.7%, consistent with expectations and higher than May’s 2.4% pace.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2% in June, slightly below the 0.3% estimate, and up from 0.1% in May. Year-over-year, core CPI increased 2.9%, just shy of the anticipated 3.0% and slightly above May’s 2.8% reading.

Traditional markets also reacted positively. U.S. stock index futures added to gains, with S&P 500 futures up 0.4%, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped two basis points to 4.41%.

Investors remain focused on whether inflation is cooling enough to justify rate cuts from the Fed later this year. Although a few Fed officials have hinted at easing as soon as the late July meeting, broader support from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers appears limited.

As a result, September has emerged as the most likely window for potential rate cuts. Prior to today’s data release, CME FedWatch showed nearly a 62% probability of a September rate move.