JPMorgan notes bitcoin’s stability while gold and silver weaken due to ETF-driven outflows and liquidity pressures.

Bitcoin is outperforming traditional safe-haven assets as gold and silver come under pressure from institutional deleveraging, ETF outflows and weakening liquidity, according to JPMorgan.

In a recent report, analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou highlighted a notable shift in market dynamics, noting that liquidity conditions in gold have deteriorated to the point where its market breadth now trails that of bitcoin—an unusual reversal.

Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient in the weeks following the outbreak of conflict in Iran, despite a sharp pullback from its October all-time highs. The asset initially sold off alongside broader risk markets, briefly dropping into the low-$60,000 range and triggering significant liquidations as investors moved to reduce exposure amid geopolitical uncertainty.

The downturn, however, was short-lived. Bitcoin has since stabilized within the high-$60,000 to low-$70,000 range, even as geopolitical tensions persist and oil prices surge past $100 per barrel.

This pattern suggests bitcoin is behaving less like a traditional safe haven during periods of immediate stress and more like a high-beta macro asset—declining in the initial shock phase before recovering as market conditions stabilize and capital flows return.

Meanwhile, precious metals have struggled. Gold has fallen დაახლოებით 15% month-to-date, reversing a crowded rally that drove prices to record highs near $5,500 in January. Silver has followed a similar trajectory after peaking near $120. JPMorgan attributes the decline to higher interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar and widespread profit-taking among both institutional and retail investors.

Flow data reinforces this divergence. Gold ETFs have seen close to $11 billion in outflows خلال the first three weeks of March, while previously accumulated inflows into silver ETFs have been largely unwound. In contrast, bitcoin investment products have continued to post net inflows over the same period.

Positioning trends tell a similar story. JPMorgan’s proxy for institutional activity, based on CME futures open interest, shows a significant buildup in gold and silver exposure through late 2025 and early 2026, followed by a sharp reduction since January. Bitcoin futures positioning, by comparison, has remained relatively stable.

Momentum indicators also diverge. Trend-following investors, including Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), have aggressively reduced exposure to gold and silver, with signals shifting from overbought to below-neutral levels—likely amplifying recent declines. Bitcoin momentum, on the other hand, is recovering from oversold territory toward neutral, suggesting easing selling pressure.

Liquidity conditions further highlight the contrast. Gold’s market depth has weakened, pushing its breadth below that of bitcoin, while silver’s thinner liquidity has intensified recent price movements.

At the time of publication, bitcoin was trading near $69,000, with gold around $4,450 per ounce and silver near $69 per ounce.

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