JPMorgan Estimates Stablecoins Will Grow to $500B by 2028, Lagging Behind More Bullish Outlooks.

JPMorgan Projects $500B Stablecoin Market by 2028, Challenging More Aggressive Forecasts

JPMorgan analysts believe the stablecoin market could grow to around $500 billion by 2028, a figure well below the more optimistic projections of $1 trillion to $2 trillion circulating in the industry.

In a note led by strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bank argued that much of the current demand for stablecoins comes from within the crypto ecosystem itself rather than broader mainstream use—particularly in payments.

“We believe expectations for the stablecoin market to balloon from $250 billion to $1–2 trillion in just a few years are overly ambitious,” the note stated.

Stablecoins—digital assets tied to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar—play a crucial role in the crypto economy. They’re widely used in trading, decentralized finance (DeFi), and as reserves by crypto platforms. However, JPMorgan notes that about 88% of stablecoin utility is confined to these crypto-native activities, while only 6% is used for actual payments.

Even with progress in regulatory frameworks and payment adoption, the analysts believe stablecoin expansion into mainstream financial systems will remain gradual and likely won’t contribute significantly to growth over the next few years.

JPMorgan also dismissed the idea that large amounts of capital will shift from bank deposits or money market funds into stablecoins. The lack of yield advantages and the friction in converting between fiat and crypto assets remain significant hurdles, the analysts said.

They further argued that comparing stablecoins to platforms like China’s digital yuan or mobile payment apps such as Alipay and WeChat Pay is misguided, due to the centralized and government-backed nature of those systems.

While JPMorgan foresees modest and steady growth for the stablecoin sector, not all institutions agree. Standard Chartered, for example, recently predicted a much more explosive path. In April, the bank suggested stablecoin circulation could approach $2 trillion by the end of 2028—particularly if the U.S. implements supportive regulations like the proposed GENIUS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins) Act.

According to Standard Chartered, a favorable regulatory environment could propel stablecoins into broader financial adoption, significantly boosting demand and supply in the coming years.