Is This the Peak for Bitcoin, or Does the Bull Run Still Have Room to Run?

Bitcoin’s Defining Moment: Has the Market Peaked or Is More Upside Ahead?
October 28, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again at a crossroads. Historical patterns suggest the world’s largest cryptocurrency may have already peaked this cycle, but several on-chain and macro indicators hint that the rally could still have further to run.

The central question for traders remains: Did Bitcoin top out at $126,500 on October 6—or is the next leg of the bull market still ahead?

Every four years, Bitcoin’s halving event reduces new supply by 50%, typically triggering major rallies in the following 12–18 months. Yet, despite being within that historical “sweet spot,” the market has yet to show the classic signs of a blow-off top, including extreme volatility, speculative mania, and euphoric sentiment.

As Bitcoin’s market capitalization grows and its inflation rate declines, the impact of each halving cycle naturally lessens. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a familiar rhythm of three years of strong gains followed by one year of correction. With 2023, 2024, and now 2025 likely to end in the green, many observers believe 2026 could mark the next downturn.

Still, the evidence suggests the top may not be in. Market sentiment remains cautious, volatility is subdued, and on-chain data shows none of the frothy exuberance that typically signals a market climax.

Whale and long-term holder activity shows significant profit-taking near the $100,000 level, while older coins have begun to move amid low transaction fees and renewed concerns around quantum security. Historically, such selling phases end as supply exhaustion sets in—often paving the way for a final push higher.

Unlike the 2017 and 2021 cycle peaks, which occurred during Federal Reserve tightening, this cycle is unfolding amid monetary easing. The Fed has already slashed rates by over 100 basis points since September 2024, with another 25-basis-point cut expected this week, and rates projected to fall to around 3.25–3.50% by early 2026. The central bank is also wrapping up quantitative tightening, signaling a pivot toward more liquidity—a setup historically favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin.

A key difference in this cycle has been the arrival of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched in early 2024. Their introduction has reshaped the market’s structure: corrections have become shallower, and institutional flows have provided steady liquidity. The addition of ETF options has further stabilized volatility, as hedging strategies help prevent sharp drawdowns.

These structural changes have helped mature Bitcoin’s market dynamics, reducing the likelihood of the extreme boom-and-bust cycles that once defined it.

Meanwhile, gold, Bitcoin’s long-standing macro counterpart, has fallen about 10% from its record high, while Bitcoin has climbed more than 10% since early October—echoing the 2020–2021 setup, when gold topped before Bitcoin’s next major breakout.

Against the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, Bitcoin remains below its prior highs (currently at 42 versus 55 in 2021), and its performance against gold (roughly 40 ounces per BTC) also remains flat compared to past peaks—suggesting Bitcoin may have more room to outperform major benchmarks.

Macro uncertainty persists amid a U.S.–China tariff dispute, government shutdown, and weak manufacturing data, though rising AI investments and Trump’s reshoring initiatives could support growth.

Despite this backdrop, investor mood remains far from euphoric. According to Coinglass, the market has logged 16 “fear” days in the past month and only six neutral days, while volatility sits near record lows—conditions rarely associated with a cycle top.

In summary, while many suspect Bitcoin’s bull run may have already peaked, the data tells a different story: sentiment, liquidity, and structure all suggest there may still be fuel left in the tank.

About The Author

ctleditor

See author's posts