Is Bitcoin Set to Break the Conference Curse at This Week’s Vegas Meetup?

Bitcoin has been on a strong rally in recent weeks, but history suggests that past Bitcoin Conferences often mark prime selling opportunities.

As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches this week’s Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, trading near a record high just above $109,000, market participants are watching closely. The question is whether this event will follow the familiar pattern of disappointing post-conference price performance.

Galaxy Research analyzed data from five previous conferences, spanning from San Francisco in 2019 to Nashville in 2024. The findings show that Bitcoin typically struggles both during and especially after these events.

For instance, at the 2019 conference, Bitcoin dropped 10% during the event and plunged 24% over the subsequent month. Similarly, the 2022 Miami conference saw a modest 1% decline during the gathering, followed by a sharp 29% drop in the next month. Both these periods, however, coincided with broader bear markets.

Even in more bullish times like 2023, Bitcoin’s price movement around conference weeks was either flat or slightly negative.

The 2024 Nashville conference offers another telling example. Despite a 4% price boost during the event—highlighted by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump’s announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve—the market quickly reversed, with Bitcoin falling 20% soon after. This decline aligned with the unwinding of the yen carry trade and a global risk-off sentiment.

This year’s conference, featuring current Vice President J.D. Vance, might play out differently due to growing institutional interest. Nevertheless, Bitcoin faces not only technical resistance but also a psychological barrier. Conference weeks have historically become “sell the news” moments for traders and investors alike.