Hayes Sees Bitcoin Hitting $1 Million by 2028 as U.S.-China Deal Lacks Substance

While investors hang on every word from the Fed, Arthur Hayes says they’re missing the plot. The real power player in today’s economic drama isn’t Jerome Powell—it’s the U.S. Treasury.

“The real show is at the Treasury Department. Ignore the Fed. It doesn’t matter,” Hayes told CoinDesk. “Powell didn’t matter under Biden, and he doesn’t matter under Trump either.”

According to Hayes, the Federal Reserve has faded into irrelevance. What truly matters is how Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is maneuvering behind the curtain—buying back debt, tweaking auctions, and quietly flooding the system with cash to keep America’s fiscal fantasy alive.

That monetary flood, Hayes says, is headed straight into hard assets—and Bitcoin is first in line.

“If there’s more money sloshing around than yesterday, Bitcoin goes up. That’s the game,” Hayes said. “And the Treasury’s making sure there’s more.”

A Trade Deal That Doesn’t Matter

As the U.S. and China inch toward another headline-grabbing trade agreement, Hayes sees a familiar playbook: grand announcements, minimal substance.

“This deal will be cosmetic,” he said. “Trump needs to show he cracked down on China. Xi needs to show he didn’t back down. Neither wants to give an inch.”

But behind the pageantry lies the real pivot: a shift from tariffs to covert capital controls. Hayes believes Washington will start taxing foreign investment—quietly reducing reliance on overseas capital without touching American consumption.

“Tax foreign holders, tweak the rules, force bond swaps—whatever it takes,” he said. “Just don’t tell Americans they need to buy less. That’s political suicide.”

Pain Avoidance Policy

According to Hayes, America’s economic strategy is built around one guiding principle: never ask voters to sacrifice.

“Americans don’t like pain,” he said. “They don’t want to be told to consume less. So policymakers won’t even try.”

That leaves just one path: manipulate the financial plumbing behind the scenes. That’s where capital controls—taxes, restrictions, and financial engineering—come in.

China Can’t Quit the Dollar

Even as China ramps up anti-American rhetoric, Hayes says the numbers tell a different story.

“They’ll pretend they’re pulling away,” he said. “But the math doesn’t lie. They need U.S. assets. They’ll keep buying—just more quietly.”

Bitcoin as the Escape Hatch

In a world of manipulated liquidity, performative geopolitics, and stealth policy, Hayes sees Bitcoin as the ultimate hedge.

His portfolio is built accordingly: roughly two-thirds in Bitcoin, a fifth in Ethereum, and the rest in high-conviction altcoins.

“We’re done with fake narratives,” Hayes said. “The market wants assets that do something. It wants real utility.”

In other words, Bitcoin isn’t just a speculation anymore—it’s the escape hatch from a system too scared to tell the truth.

About The Author