Harvard Academic Behind Bitcoin $100 Crash Prediction Blames Regulators’ Leniency

Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff Revisits Bitcoin Forecast, Acknowledges Underestimation of Its Underground Economy Role

Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard economist and former IMF chief economist, has conceded that he underestimated bitcoin’s enduring strength, largely fueled by its use within the global underground economy.

In 2018, Rogoff predicted that bitcoin (BTC) was more likely to fall to $100 than climb to $100,000 over the next decade. At that time, bitcoin traded under $10,000.

However, bitcoin shattered expectations by surpassing the $100,000 mark earlier this year, representing a tenfold increase since Rogoff’s original prediction.

As bitcoin hovers around $113,000, Rogoff reflected on his prior stance, admitting he had been “far too optimistic” about U.S. regulators taking a firm approach to cryptocurrency oversight.

In a recent post on X, Rogoff criticized the regulatory environment for being too permissive, allowing cryptocurrencies like bitcoin to flourish despite risks tied to tax evasion and illicit activities.

He acknowledged that he had not fully accounted for bitcoin’s role as a transactional medium in the estimated $20 trillion underground economy, which provides consistent demand that supports a price floor. This dynamic is detailed in his latest book, Our Dollar, Your Problem.

Rogoff also highlighted a “blatant conflict of interest,” noting that some regulators themselves hold hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars in cryptocurrencies without apparent consequences.