Bitcoin Rallies Back to $104K — But Is This Just a Dead-Cat Bounce?
After slipping below critical levels earlier this week, Bitcoin has clawed its way back to the $104,000 mark. On the surface, the recovery looks promising. Dig a little deeper, though, and the technicals tell a different story — one where caution still reigns.
The rebound comes in the wake of a breakdown from a head-and-shoulders pattern, a classically bearish structure that had been quietly forming on Bitcoin’s hourly chart. Thursday’s sell-off confirmed the move, pushing BTC below neckline support and triggering a wave of risk-off positioning.
Today’s recovery? It may be less a trend reversal and more a retest — the kind that lures in late bulls and gives bears a second chance to reload.
The Setup in Focus
Head-and-shoulders breakdowns often play out in three waves: the initial leg down, a bounce back to test the neckline, and a secondary flush that completes the pattern. BTC now sits at that middle phase — dancing with resistance around $104K–$104.5K.
Volume on the rebound has been muted compared to the sell pressure that triggered the drop. That imbalance raises red flags for those looking for confirmation of strength.
- Neckline (Now Resistance): $104K
- H&S Target (Pattern Completion): $95.5K
- Invalidation Zone: $107K and above
Beyond the Chart: Macro Winds Still Matter
Even as the technicals lean bearish, macro risk lingers in the background. U.S. fiscal concerns, rising real yields, and uncertain liquidity conditions continue to cast long shadows. Bitcoin, for all its long-term promise, isn’t immune to the pressure of tightening global credit and volatile sentiment.
So the question becomes: is Bitcoin merely pausing on its way lower — or staging a base before launching higher?
Right now, the chart favors the former.
Until BTC breaks above $107K with authority, the current bounce looks like a technical retest — not a full recovery.
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