Coinbase Institutional: Bitcoin and Top 50 Cryptos Drop Into Bear Market, Hinting at Onset of Crypto Winter

Coinbase Institutional Flags Bear Market for Crypto as Bitcoin and Altcoins Struggle

Coinbase Institutional has signaled the onset of a crypto bear market, as key indicators show weakening momentum across major digital assets, including Bitcoin and the top altcoins.

David Duong, Global Head of Research at Coinbase, noted that Bitcoin’s sustained dip below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) starting in March marks a definitive shift into bearish territory. Additionally, the broader crypto market, as measured by the COIN50 index, has been in a downtrend since late February.

“Bitcoin’s performance below the 200DMA reflects a longer-term bearish shift, while the COIN50 index has clearly been trading in bear market conditions since the end of February,” Duong explained. “This isn’t just about a 20% correction but a broader regime shift.”

Duong also addressed the limitations of traditional metrics in the crypto space, where frequent sharp corrections often fail to meet the standard 20% drop used in traditional markets. In crypto, the underlying sentiment shift, driven by intense sell-offs and liquidity changes, can trigger defensive strategies even before the technical bear market threshold is met.

To further analyze market conditions, Duong highlighted Coinbase’s z-score model, which adjusts Bitcoin’s performance relative to its past year. The model indicates that the bull market effectively ended in February and that since then, the market has been in “neutral” territory, suggesting a wait-and-see period.

The slowdown in venture capital funding further complicates the outlook for alternative cryptocurrencies. Despite Bitcoin’s recent highs, investor interest in the sector has waned, with VC funding 50–60% below 2021 levels.

“Although we anticipate a market bottom around mid-Q2 2025, we expect a potential recovery in Q3 2025 as market sentiment stabilizes,” Duong concluded.