Coinbase Faces Revenue and Trading Downturn Due to Tariff Tensions, Says Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer Analyst Foresees Continued Revenue Pressure for Coinbase Due to Tariff Uncertainties

Coinbase (COIN) faces a tough road ahead as fluctuating tariff threats from former President Donald Trump continue to dampen retail crypto activity, analysts at Oppenheimer have warned in a recent report.

The investment bank has revised its full-year trading volume projection downward by 19%, now estimating $1.3 trillion, and has also lowered its first-quarter forecast to $380 billion—down 13% from the prior quarter. This decrease is largely attributed to reduced risk appetite among investors.

Despite a more favorable stance on crypto from Washington, including pro-crypto messages from the White House, Congress, and U.S. regulators, Oppenheimer analysts noted that the market has yet to fully embrace these policy shifts.

“Since the election, the U.S. has seen unprecedented support for the crypto sector, with government initiatives designed to attract blockchain investments,” said Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau. “However, the back-and-forth nature of Trump’s tariff policies has led to market uncertainty, fuelling recession fears and a pullback in retail trading activity.”

Coinbase’s stock has dropped 30% year-to-date, underperforming Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500, which are down 10% and 8%, respectively. Although this marks an improvement from the 86% decline in 2022, it underscores Coinbase’s heightened sensitivity to broader economic conditions.

Oppenheimer has also reduced its 2025 and 2026 revenue and earnings forecasts, cutting its price target for Coinbase to $279 from $388. The analysts cited concerns that retail participation could remain subdued amid ongoing policy uncertainties. Despite this, Oppenheimer maintained its “outperform” rating on the stock, which fell 1.2% to $173.39 on Wednesday.

On a positive note, Coinbase continues to dominate the market. In February, it accounted for 69% of U.S. spot crypto trading volume, surpassing competitors like Robinhood (HOOD). However, maintaining this market share will depend on whether the broader market can shake off the effects of tariff-related concerns.

Despite the short-term challenges, Oppenheimer remains confident in Coinbase’s long-term growth potential.

“As a leading player in the crypto space with strong opportunities in tokenization and payments, Coinbase is well-positioned for long-term success. If tariff tensions ease, we see significant upside potential for the stock,” Lau concluded.