CME Bitcoin Futures Premium Shrinks to $490, Undoing Recent Political Gains

Bitcoin Futures Spread Shrinks, Erasing Post-Election Gains as Market Turns Cautious

The optimism surrounding a pro-crypto White House is fading fast, with Bitcoin’s futures market showing signs of waning bullish sentiment.

A key indicator—the spread between next-month and front-month CME Bitcoin (BTC) futures—has tightened to $495, a sharp contraction from its $1,705 peak in December, per TradingView data. The move effectively erases the so-called “Trump bump,” which had fueled a surge in bullish positioning following his election victory.

Market Shifts Focus from Politics to Macroeconomics

The shrinking spread suggests traders are reassessing Bitcoin’s outlook in light of broader economic uncertainties.

“The futures market reflects tempered expectations for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory, as macroeconomic concerns have reasserted dominance over the political narrative,” said Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks.

Bitcoin has fallen 20% from its February highs, tracking an 8% decline in the Nasdaq. Investors are grappling with a mix of geopolitical risks, renewed inflation fears, and uncertainty over Trump’s trade policies, which have impacted market sentiment.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Disappoints Market Expectations

Adding to the retracement, investors were underwhelmed by the recent unveiling of Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. While some had anticipated large-scale Bitcoin purchases by the U.S. government, the plan instead revolves around holding onto confiscated BTC without selling it.

“This wasn’t the bullish catalyst the market was expecting,” said Ian Balina, CEO of Token Metrics. “Many traders were pricing in active government accumulation, but instead, they got a policy of simply not selling.”

Futures Market Structure Remains Intact

Despite the narrowing spread, Bitcoin’s futures market remains in contango, meaning longer-dated contracts continue to trade at a premium—a sign that expectations for long-term price appreciation are still intact.

“While near-term sentiment has weakened, the overall futures curve suggests the market is not in full risk-off mode,” Erdösi added. “The correction appears to be driven by spot-market selling rather than systemic market weakness.”

With the political euphoria fading, Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly tied to traditional financial markets, where inflation, rate cuts, and institutional flows will likely dictate the next major move.

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