Clarity Act Approval Odds Surge After Reports of Trump Ethics Deal

Bettors increased the probability that the crypto market structure bill will pass this year to 43%, recovering from last week’s record low. However, the reports driving the move remain unverified, and no updated bill language has been released publicly.

Polymarket traders significantly raised the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 after reports suggested that President Trump had agreed to the ethics provision that had been delaying the legislation.

The prediction market’s estimate for the crypto market structure bill being signed into law this year climbed to roughly 43% on Monday, up from 32% on Friday. The previous reading marked the lowest level since the market launched in January.

The increase followed reports that negotiators had resolved the final major issue preventing progress after months of discussions.

However, Democrats have not reviewed the bill’s text, according to a source familiar with the matter who spoke with CoinDesk, and no official version of the language has been made public. The White House and offices of the senators involved have not issued statements on the matter.

The ethics provision has emerged as the last major barrier for the Clarity Act, which aims to establish the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for digital assets while dividing oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The debate has focused on concerns over whether elected officials and government figures should be able to benefit financially from crypto activities while serving in office. The issue gained additional attention due to Trump’s memecoin ventures and his family’s involvement in World Liberty Financial, which recent financial disclosures showed generated millions in earnings.

The ethics language was reportedly discussed during a July 16 meeting involving Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt. The Senate is expected to consider the legislation before the August deadline.

Crypto markets extended their gains on Monday as the reports circulated. Bitcoin traded near $66,300, up about 3% over the previous 24 hours, while Ether and XRP each advanced roughly 4%.

Market participants largely attributed the broader rally to renewed strength in artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks, including gains from memory chip companies Samsung and SK Hynix. However, speculation around a potential ethics breakthrough for the Clarity Act added further support to the positive market sentiment.