Citi Foresees Stablecoins Creating a ‘ChatGPT’ Moment for Blockchain, with Market Cap Reaching $3.7T by 2030

Stablecoin issuers may soon rank among the largest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially surpassing the holdings of major foreign nations, according to a new report by global financial institution Citi.

Citi forecasts that 2025 could be a defining year for blockchain adoption, with stablecoins taking center stage in a manner akin to the breakthrough moment artificial intelligence (AI) had with ChatGPT in 2023.

“2025 could serve as blockchain’s ‘ChatGPT’ moment,” Citi’s analysts stated in their report published earlier this week.

The focus of Citi’s outlook is stablecoins, a class of cryptocurrencies that are pegged to traditional fiat currencies, such as the U.S. dollar. With leaders like Tether’s $145 billion USDT and Circle’s $60 billion USDC, stablecoins have experienced significant growth and are increasingly used for global payments, remittances, and other financial transactions.

Citi predicts that the stablecoin market could swell to $1.6 trillion by 2030 in its base-case scenario, up from $230 billion today, assuming continued regulatory support and institutional adoption. In its most optimistic scenario, Citi sees the market potentially reaching $3.7 trillion. However, in a more pessimistic case, structural challenges could cap growth at around $500 billion.

One of the primary factors driving this growth is the favorable regulatory environment in the U.S., particularly following a presidential executive order to establish a federal framework for digital assets. With clear guidelines on stablecoins, these tokens could become more deeply embedded in the financial system, offering faster payments, greater transparency, and more efficient asset settlement.

“This could pave the way for greater adoption of blockchain-based currency and inspire new use cases across the financial sector and beyond in the U.S.,” the report’s authors noted.

Stablecoin Issuers Likely to Become Major Purchasers of U.S. Treasuries

The report highlights that stablecoins are expected to remain predominantly dollar-denominated, with Citi projecting that 90% of stablecoins in circulation by 2030 will still be tied to the U.S. dollar, reinforcing its dominance in global finance.

This shift has significant implications. Stablecoin issuers could become some of the largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries, especially if regulations push stablecoin providers to back their tokens with low-risk, liquid assets such as government bonds. Citi estimates that by the end of the decade, issuers could hold up to $1.2 trillion in U.S. government debt, potentially surpassing the holdings of all major foreign sovereign nations.

At the same time, central banks in Europe and Asia are expected to continue developing their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), the report mentioned.

Potential Risks for Stablecoin Growth

Despite the promising outlook, the report also points out several risks that could hinder stablecoin growth. Stablecoins experienced nearly 1,900 instances of de-pegging in 2023, with over 600 involving major tokens, according to Moody’s data.

In extreme cases, such as the mass redemptions triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) — which impacted USDC — disruptions in crypto liquidity could occur, leading to forced sell-offs and potential market-wide instability, the authors warned.

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