BTC Volatility Climbs as Market Braces for Possible Breakout

Bitcoin is exhibiting continued consolidation as its implied volatility stays near multi-year lows, signaling a potential buildup ahead of the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

Analyst Checkmate highlights the “choppiness index,” a metric designed to measure sideways price movement, which has risen in line with Bitcoin’s recent rangebound behavior. Over the past several months, Bitcoin has traded between $110,000 and its all-time high of $124,000, currently hovering around $113,000.

On the one-month timeframe, Checkonchain reports the choppiness index at 54. The last time it surpassed this level was in early November 2024, just before a major rally pushed Bitcoin above $90,000, with the index peaking at 64. A similar pattern occurred in early 2023 at the start of the current bull cycle, when the index reached 57.

This indicates that Bitcoin may continue to consolidate as volatility remains compressed, potentially setting the stage for a breakout. The upcoming CPI report, scheduled for 12:30 PM UTC, is the next key macroeconomic catalyst that could trigger either a directional move or an expansion in volatility.

Historical analysis also points to periods of prolonged sideways movement preceding sharp declines, such as the slump that bottomed near $76,000 in April 2025. Traders will be closely watching for signs of renewed momentum or further consolidation in the lead-up to the CPI release.