BTC Trails Equities, Gold, and the U.S. Dollar This Quarter: Here’s What Traders Are Watching

Bitcoin Struggles as Options Expiry and Technical Levels Weigh on Price – 27/9/2025

Bitcoin (BTC) ended the week at $111,480.33, recording one of its weakest weekly performances of the year with a 5% decline. Week 38 also closed out Q3, which is up roughly 1%, while September has held relatively flat.

The pullback aligns with historical trends, but several factors contributed to the underperformance. On Friday, over $17 billion in options expired, with the “max pain” strike price — where option holders face the greatest losses — at $110,000, acting as a focal point for BTC’s spot price.

A key technical metric is the short-term holder cost basis at $110,775, reflecting the average acquisition price for coins moved over the past six months. Bitcoin tested this level in August, and in bull markets, it often revisits this line multiple times. This year, it broke significantly below it only once during the April tariff-induced sell-off, dipping to around $74,500.

Analyst Caleb Franzen noted that BTC has slipped below its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), with the 200-day EMA at $106,186. Maintaining the broader uptrend, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, requires BTC to hold above prior support around $107,252 from September 1.

Macro Backdrop
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized 3.8% in Q2, above the 3.3% estimate, marking the strongest growth since Q2 2023. Initial jobless claims fell 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest since mid-July. Core PCE inflation rose 0.2% in August, in line with expectations.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields bounced off 4% support, trading near 4.2%, while the dollar index (DXY) remains around long-term support at 98. Metals continue to shine, with silver approaching $45, near highs last seen in 1980 and 2011. U.S. equities are near record levels, but Bitcoin lags, remaining over 10% below its peak.

Bitcoin-Exposed Equities
Bitcoin treasury companies face continued multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) compression. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is barely positive year-to-date and dipped below $300 at one point. Its ratio against BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) stands at 4.8 — the lowest since October 2024 — highlighting its underperformance relative to BTC over the past year.

MSTR’s enterprise mNAV is 1.44, accounting for all shares, debt, and perpetual preferred stock minus cash. Three of four perpetual preferred stocks — STRK, STRC, and STRF — maintain positive lifetime returns, supporting ongoing BTC purchases led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor.

Low Bitcoin volatility poses another challenge. Implied volatility has fallen below 40, reducing the speculative appeal of MSTR. The annualized standard deviation of BTC daily log returns has dropped from 89% over the past year to 49% over the last 30 days, dampening trading activity and investor interest.

Metaplanet (3350), the fifth-largest BTC treasury company, holds 25,555 BTC and has roughly $500 million left to deploy from its international offering. Yet its share price remains at 517 yen ($3.45), more than 70% below its all-time high. The company’s mNAV has fallen sharply to 1.12 from 8.44 in June, with a market cap of $3.94 billion versus a BTC NAV of $2.9 billion, and an average acquisition cost of $106,065 per coin.

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