Bitcoin Traders Position Cautiously Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data
Bitcoin traders are preparing for Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report by snapping up cheap downside protection on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), betting that a stronger-than-expected jobs print could pressure risk assets.
Consensus forecasts from FactSet point to 110,000 jobs added in August, compared with 73,000 in July, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% for a second month.
Other labor indicators, however, have signaled a cooling trend. Job openings fell more than expected to 7.2 million in July, quit rates remain subdued, and ADP data showed private-sector hiring slowed to 54,000 jobs in August from 104,000 in July. That backdrop has reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year—a tailwind for crypto.
Still, hedging demand has picked up. “We’ve seen robust appetite for leveraged downside exposure through 5-delta out-of-the-money puts, with consistent demand across the curve,” said Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks. He added that traders are guarding against an “outside chance” of a stronger payrolls print that could dent rate cut bets.
Options activity on Deribit reflects similar caution, with near-term puts trading at premiums to calls.
Bitcoin last traded near $109,950, down 2% in 24 hours, with upside capped below $112,000—a level now acting as resistance.
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