BTC slides toward its weakest Q4 since 2018 with traders expecting further losses

Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter slump is shaping up as one of its weakest year-end performances outside of full-blown bear markets, highlighting the fragile footing of the broader crypto complex despite a recent bounce.

CoinGlass data shows bitcoin is down more than 22% so far in Q4, an unusually poor showing for a period that has often delivered some of the asset’s strongest gains. The latest push back toward the $90,000 area has offered a short-term lift to sentiment, but few analysts view it as a meaningful inflection point after one of the softest second halves in recent years.

Major tokens have remained largely range-bound over the past 24 hours. XRP, ether, Solana’s SOL, Cardano’s ADA and Dogecoin each rose by as much as 2%, while Aave’s AAVE extended its decline amid an ongoing governance dispute, leaving it as the weakest performer with a roughly 7% drop.

Total crypto market capitalization has again moved above $3 trillion, a key psychological threshold that has acted as a dividing line between buyers and sellers over the past month. While prices are higher on the day, analysts warn the rebound appears driven more by technical factors and seller exhaustion than by renewed confidence.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said the market’s recent resilience is largely technical, reflecting a rebound from a low base after weeks of selling pressure.

“The crypto market is making another attempt to grow, but this is not yet a recovery,” Kuptsikevich said. He noted that sentiment has improved only modestly, with the fear and greed index climbing to 25 — signaling that traders are backing away from extreme pessimism, but not yet embracing risk.

Bitcoin was trading near $88,000 during Asian morning hours on Tuesday, pressing against the top of a range that has held since early last week. Kuptsikevich cautioned that short-term momentum could prove deceptive in the broader context. Bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its 2025 peak and is still trading beneath levels seen at the start of the year.

“Attempts to bring year-to-date performance back toward zero offer little comfort,” he said, adding that disappointment has replaced the optimism that dominated markets earlier in the year.

Seasonal patterns reinforce the cautious tone. While the fourth quarter has historically produced some of bitcoin’s strongest rallies, it has also delivered sharp drawdowns during periods of tightening liquidity and heightened macro uncertainty. Recent price action suggests the market remains vulnerable to abrupt reversals, particularly during U.S. trading hours, where gains from Asian and European sessions have frequently faded as North American markets open.