BTC Risks Dropping to $107K While XRP Shows Bearish MACD Before Fed Speak and Inflation Figures

Markets are bracing for volatility this week ahead of key Federal Reserve speeches and the U.S. core PCE inflation report.

Dollar Index (DXY) Hints at Rebound
Following the Fed’s first interest rate cut since December, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) ended last week forming a dragonfly doji on the weekly chart—a classic bullish reversal pattern. Despite the dovish rate move, the DXY briefly dipped below July’s 96.37 low before rebounding to 97.65, supported by resilient Treasury yields.

The dragonfly doji signals that a prior downtrend may be ending, suggesting a potential USD rally. Historically, dollar strength tends to pressure risk assets and dollar-denominated instruments, setting the tone for the week ahead.

Bitcoin Encounters Key Resistance
Bitcoin (BTC) mirrored this indecision, forming a weekly Doji candle at the critical trendline defined by the 2017 and 2021 bull market peaks. This signals hesitation among bulls and renewed selling pressure.

Daily charts show BTC flirting with a drop below the Ichimoku cloud, having breached the Sept. 1 trendline, which implies downside risk. Support is seen at the 50-day simple moving average near $114,473, followed by Sept. 1 lows at $107,300. Overcoming last week’s high of $118,000 is critical for bulls to shift momentum.

Ether Faces Technical Pressure
Ether (ETH) is trading below the lower boundary of a contracting triangle on the daily chart, highlighting renewed seller dominance. Key support levels are the Aug. 20 low at $4,062 and the psychological $4,000 mark. Bulls must reclaim the 24-hour high of $4,458 to regain control.

XRP’s MACD Turns Bearish
XRP continues to frustrate bulls. Despite the debut of a U.S. XRP ETF, the weekly MACD has turned bearish, signaling a renewed downside bias. Price action shows a retreat toward the upper boundary of a descending triangle on the daily chart. Last week’s breakout failed to sustain momentum, keeping traders cautious.

Focus on Fed Commentary and PCE Data
This week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials are scheduled to speak, with markets closely monitoring guidance on interest rates. While last week’s cut signaled easing ahead, Powell stressed a data-dependent approach.

Fed dissenting voice Stephen Miran, who supported a larger 50-basis-point cut, will also share his views, adding to market uncertainty.

The week concludes with the release of the U.S. core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Analysts expect a 2.7% year-on-year increase, with core PCE rising 2.9% in August—a slight uptick from July. These readings could influence market expectations for future policy moves.

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