“BTC Holds Under $112K as Jobs Report Disappoints and Fed Cut Expectations Loom”

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under $112,000 following Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which revealed only 22,000 new positions in August — far below the expected 75,000 — fueling speculation of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut.

Jobs Report Highlights

The nonfarm payrolls report also revised June and July job creation downward by 21,000, with June showing a net loss of 13,000 positions. Sectors such as manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, and professional services posted declines, while health services and leisure & hospitality were the primary gainers.

Market analysts described the report as a potential sign of labor market weakness. Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, noted that the upcoming annual benchmark revisions — expected to cut 500,000 to 1 million jobs from previous estimates — could further strengthen rate-cut expectations.

Bitcoin Price Action

BTC briefly rallied above $113,300 on hopes of easier monetary policy and softer Treasury yields but quickly fell back below $111,982. This reinforces the late August double-top breakdown and highlights bearish technical risks. The 200-day simple moving average around $101,700 serves as the first key support.

A double-top pattern — forming when a price peaks, retraces, and fails to surpass its previous high — signals a potential downtrend. BTC’s current structure mirrors February’s double top, which preceded a multi-week sell-off to roughly $75,000.

Treasury Yields and Volatility

Treasury yields may see heightened volatility around the impending Fed rate cuts. While initial cuts could push the 10-year yield lower, history suggests yields can rebound quickly, as observed in late 2024. Analysts warn that persistent inflation and ongoing fiscal spending may amplify yield fluctuations.

Inflation Outlook

Investors will monitor August CPI data next week. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, keeping annual growth at 3.1%, while headline CPI is projected at 2.9% year-over-year. Continued inflationary pressures could complicate the Fed’s policy approach and add volatility to BTC.