BTC Edges Toward a ‘Death Cross,’ Reviving Concerns Over a Repeating Market Pattern

Although the death cross is typically viewed as a bearish omen, every instance of it in the current cycle has coincided with a significant market low.

Bitcoin is nearing another potential death cross, with the 50-day moving average at $110,669 now close to slipping below the 200-day moving average at $110,459. Traditionally, this crossover signals weakening short-term momentum and is interpreted as a bearish development. Yet in this market cycle, the pattern has repeatedly acted as a counterintuitive bullish indicator.

BTC has fallen roughly 25% from its October peak near $126,000, with the correction unfolding over the past 41 days. If the death cross materializes, it will mark the fourth such occurrence since 2023—and each previous one has aligned with a major local bottom.

• September 2023: Bitcoin found support around $25,000.
• August 2024: During the yen carry trade unwind, BTC stabilized near $49,000.
• April 2025: Amid uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff proposals, the price bottomed below $75,000.

In all three cases, the market put in its low shortly before the moving averages crossed, raising the possibility that the current setup—BTC trading around $94,000—may be following a similar script.

The present decline is also more moderate than the April selloff, when bitcoin retreated over 30% from its January high of $109,000 and spent nearly 80 days grinding lower before forming a base. By comparison, the current 25% pullback over 41 days suggests that additional volatility cannot be ruled out.

Adding to the uncertainty is the recent conclusion of the U.S. government shutdown on Nov. 12. Historical precedent offers a potential parallel: after the 2019 shutdown ended, bitcoin dropped more than 9% within five days and did not rebound until roughly two weeks later.

This time, BTC has already fallen around 10% since the government reopened—prompting traders to wonder whether history may be repeating.

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