BTC Clears 50-Day Average, but CoinDesk Indicator Suggests Downtrend Isn’t Over Yet

Bitcoin Holds Above 50-Day Average Ahead of Fed Decision, but Trend Gauge Stays Bearish

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding steady above $115,000 after breaking through its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), a key technical milestone that often signals a shift toward short-term bullish momentum.

The breakout has been supported by strengthening technical signals. The MACD histogram has flashed a bullish crossover on the daily chart, while the 5-day moving average has moved above the 10-day, indicating improving momentum after weeks of choppy trade.

The latest leg higher appears to be fueled by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut during this week’s policy meeting, alongside positive tones from U.S.–China trade discussions, both of which have boosted risk appetite across markets.

However, caution remains warranted. CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Trend Indicator (BTI) — which measures the direction and strength of price momentum — continues to signal a downtrend, suggesting broader weakness still lingers beneath the surface.

BTC also remains below the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart, a widely watched resistance area that has repeatedly capped upside attempts. Analysts say that only a decisive close above this cloud would mark a true bullish reversal, potentially clearing the path toward the $120,000 region.

For now, Bitcoin’s rise above the 50-day average represents early signs of stabilization, not yet confirmation of a new uptrend — with Wednesday’s FOMC decision likely to determine whether the rally gains conviction or fades back into consolidation.

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