Brazil’s B3 exchange is set to enter the prediction-style derivatives space with a new lineup of contracts that allow investors to trade on the probability of future market outcomes.
From April 27, the exchange will launch six “Event Contracts” tied to bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, and the Ibovespa index. The instruments mirror the structure of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, with prices ranging up to 100 reais (roughly $19), reflecting the market-implied likelihood of a given event.
The contracts will be regulated by Brazil’s securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), and are aimed exclusively at professional investors. Access will be limited to those with at least 10 million reais ($1.9 million) in assets or those certified by the CVM.
The initial set includes contracts linked to both spot and mini futures price movements. Like other event-based derivatives, they feature predefined payouts and capped risk, with all positions settled in cash rather than through delivery of the underlying assets.
According to Luiz Masagão, B3’s Vice President of Products and Clients, the rollout is part of a broader effort to modernize the country’s derivatives market. He noted that B3 has already introduced contracts tied to central bank decisions and has been closely monitoring the rapid expansion of prediction markets globally.
The exchange is also advancing its digital asset strategy. Late last year, B3 revealed plans to launch a tokenization platform and its own stablecoin, both expected to go live this year.
B3’s move marks the first federally regulated entry into prediction-style markets in Brazil, a space that has so far operated largely in a regulatory gray zone. Domestic platforms such as Prévias and Palpitada have already gained traction, while U.S.-based Kalshi has partnered with XP International, one of Brazil’s largest brokerages, to offer contracts linked to Brazilian economic indicators.
The launch comes amid a global boom in prediction markets, with total notional volume approaching $160 billion and user numbers surpassing 3 million, according to Dune Analytics. Polymarket and Kalshi continue to dominate the sector, accounting for the bulk of activity.
Traditional financial players are also increasing their involvement. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has recently expanded its investment in Polymarket, bringing its total commitment close to $2 billion.
Despite the rapid growth, regulatory uncertainty persists. In Brazil, it remains unclear whether oversight of prediction markets will ultimately fall under the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance, reflecting a broader global debate over how these products should be regulated.
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