Bitwise: Crypto’s 2026 Rally Hinges on Three Key Tests
Bitcoin and ether have kicked off 2026 strongly, but sustaining the rally depends on market stability, U.S. legislation, and equity market conditions, according to crypto asset manager Bitwise.
In a Tuesday blog post, Bitwise noted bitcoin (BTC $91,452) and ether (ETH $3,170) are up roughly 7% year-to-date, while speculative tokens like Dogecoin (DOGE $0.146) have surged about 29%, reflecting renewed risk appetite.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan identified three key conditions for a sustained rally. First, the market has avoided another major shock like the $19 billion liquidation event of October 10, 2025, easing concerns over forced sell-offs by large investors.
Second, U.S. legislation remains critical. Proposed crypto market bills are advancing in Congress, with a Senate Banking Committee markup tentatively scheduled for mid-January. Passage would secure a more stable regulatory environment, while failure could reverse current pro-crypto momentum.
Third, equity markets need to remain reasonably calm. A sharp selloff—such as a 20% S&P 500 drop—could weigh on crypto despite low correlation.
Bitwise remains cautiously optimistic, citing institutional adoption, stablecoin growth, tokenization, and regulatory progress as supportive factors for crypto in 2026.
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