Bitcoin’s post-Fed price decline persists, but this key contrary indicator offers fresh hope, Godbole says.

A key contrary indicator is now signaling hope for Bitcoin bulls, suggesting a potential rebound toward six-figure prices.

Bitcoin (BTC) recently dropped to $96,000 after the Federal Reserve’s decision, triggering an important contrary signal that has historically marked the end of price pullbacks. On Wednesday, the Fed reduced its benchmark borrowing rate as expected but revised its 2025 forecast, now predicting just two rate cuts, down from the four cuts projected in September. The Fed also emphasized that it has no plans to engage in any government-backed efforts to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Since then, Bitcoin has experienced a drop of over 8%, reaching lows near $96,000 at one point. As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $97,500, a nearly 10% decline from its all-time high of $108,266 reached earlier this week, according to CoinDesk data.

This decline has caused the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) to fall below the 200-hour SMA, signaling a bearish crossover. While such a pattern typically suggests further downside, it has not always been reliable in the recent bull market.

Bitcoin has undergone several pullbacks during its post-U.S. election rally from $70,000 to over $100,000, with each dip followed by a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-hour SMAs.

Despite this, the latest crossover is giving renewed hope to bulls who believe a rebound into the six-figure range is imminent. A potential rally could face resistance at $106,000, marked by a descending trendline that reflects the recent decline. A breakout above this level could open the door to new record highs.

However, it’s important to remember that patterns are not always foolproof, and this contrary indicator might fail, potentially leading to a deeper drop. If Bitcoin drops below the recent low of $96,000, it could expose a swing low around $91,000, which was recorded on December 5.