Bitcoin’s next major move is tied to oil—and for now, the outlook is a coin toss.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) next major move may hinge less on crypto-specific factors and more on the trajectory of oil prices, as macro forces continue to dominate market direction.

The cryptocurrency has rebounded to around $70,900 from earlier weekly lows near $67,000, tracking a broader risk-on shift after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a temporary ceasefire that sent crude prices tumbling roughly 15% to below $100 per barrel.

Still, bitcoin has repeatedly reclaimed the $70,000 level in recent weeks only to lose momentum, raising questions about whether this latest breakout attempt will hold.

According to analysts at Bitfinex, the answer may depend largely on whether oil continues to weaken.

“A sustained 15%–16% drop in crude could meaningfully bring forward expectations for rate cuts,” the analysts said. “That would likely lead futures markets to price in higher odds of easing later in 2026, creating a structural tailwind for non-yielding assets like bitcoin.”

Lower oil prices could help ease inflationary pressures that intensified during the March energy spike, potentially giving the Federal Reserve and other central banks more room to cut rates.

If that scenario plays out, bitcoin could see a sharp upside move. Market positioning suggests the potential for a squeeze higher, with a large concentration of short positions sitting just above current levels.

“Bitcoin is pressing into a dense cluster of short liquidity,” said Adam Saville Brown, head of commercial at Tesseract Group. “Roughly $6 billion in leveraged shorts are concentrated between $72,200 and $73,500. A break above that zone could trigger liquidations and push prices toward $80,000.”

For now, however, expectations for rate cuts remain subdued. Some analysts argue that elevated energy costs could keep inflation sticky without significantly weakening demand, leaving the Fed in a holding pattern with rates steady around 3.5%.

At the same time, the ceasefire that initially drove optimism is already showing signs of strain. Reports indicate renewed tensions after Israeli strikes in Lebanon, while conflicting claims over the scope of the agreement have added to uncertainty. Adding to the volatility, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reportedly been disrupted again after briefly resuming.

This raises the risk of another rebound in oil prices, which could weigh on risk assets if geopolitical tensions escalate further.

“The downside scenario is straightforward,” Brown said. “If talks collapse and oil moves back above $100, markets could quickly revert to risk-off conditions.”

Bitfinex analysts echoed that view, noting that crude could surge toward $120 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, further complicating the outlook for rate cuts.

The situation effectively creates a binary setup for markets over the coming days. With the ceasefire window limited to two weeks, traders are navigating a narrow timeframe where outcomes could shift rapidly.

“The oil move has already been priced in,” Bitfinex analysts said. “A breakdown in the ceasefire would likely have a more pronounced negative impact than the initial shock.”

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