Bitcoin Shrugs Off Rising Bond Yields Over the Long Term, Data Shows

Bitcoin has historically shown little sustained reaction to higher bond yields, although a sharp increase in bond-market volatility can still weigh on crypto prices in the near term.

Rising global bond yields are often viewed as a negative factor for bitcoin. However, BTC has displayed little consistent relationship with government bond yields throughout most of its history.

Yields returned to the spotlight Wednesday after the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to above 5.13%, its highest level since 2007. The move also pushed borrowing costs higher across several global bond markets.

The conventional argument is that higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding assets that do not generate income, such as bitcoin and gold. As bonds become more attractive, investors could theoretically shift capital away from cryptocurrencies.

Historical correlations, however, provide little support for that assumption.

CoinDesk’s analysis shows that the 90-day correlation between bitcoin’s daily returns and daily moves in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stands at just -0.18, indicating a relationship close to zero. Over longer periods, the correlation remains similarly weak, at -0.06 over 180 days and -0.03 over one year. Bitcoin has also remained broadly uncorrelated with government bond yields in other major economies.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Record

Bitcoin’s limited correlation with bonds can provide diversification benefits for portfolios. Its behavior differs from traditional rate-sensitive assets, potentially allowing it to contribute to risk-adjusted returns.

Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, told CoinDesk that bitcoin’s near-zero correlation with Treasury yields can be viewed as a portfolio benefit because BTC does not simply behave like a duration or interest-rate asset. She noted that the 90-day correlation between bitcoin and the U.S. 10-year yield has recently been around -0.17 and has at times moved even closer to zero.

Bitcoin’s longer-term performance also illustrates the disconnect. BTC has gained 191% since 2021 and reached a record $126,000 last October. During the same period, 10-year bond yields increased by more than 500 basis points in the U.K. and France and by more than 400 basis points in the U.S., Australia, Germany and Italy.

Japanese and Swiss 10-year yields increased by 296 and 105 basis points, respectively. China’s yields moved in the opposite direction as the country dealt with deflationary pressures.

Bond Volatility Matters More in the Short Term

A weak correlation with bond yields does not mean bitcoin is protected from short-term market stress. The bigger concern can be sudden volatility in the bond market rather than the absolute level of yields.

A sharp increase in Treasury-market volatility can tighten overall financial conditions, increase borrowing costs and encourage investors to reduce exposure to riskier assets. Because U.S. Treasuries underpin much of the global financial system, disruptions can spread across markets.

The MOVE Index, which measures expected volatility in Treasury securities, jumped 21% to 95 points Wednesday, reaching its highest level since April 1. The increase coincided with bitcoin’s decline from about $87,200 to $83,500, although the cryptocurrency may also have been due for a pullback following its recent strong rally.

Further increases in Treasury volatility could therefore create additional downside pressure for bitcoin even if the long-term relationship between BTC and bond yields remains weak.

Strong U.S. Data Pushes Yields Higher

Wednesday’s increase in yields was driven primarily by economic data rather than concerns about fiscal conditions in the United States.

S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI climbed to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, marking its highest reading since July 2021. The data showed business activity expanding at its fastest pace in more than five years while also pointing to increased inflationary pressure.

The report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to continue raising interest rates following its 25-basis-point increase in September. Both the 10-year and two-year Treasury yields rose sharply after the data was released.

However, the increase was not limited to the U.S. France’s 10-year yield actually climbed more than the U.S. yield on Wednesday, while the U.K. also recorded a move close to that of Treasuries.

Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the IIF, said Italy and Greece experienced a similar pattern. In a Substack post published Wednesday, Brooks said strong U.S. economic data was followed by renewed pressure on countries considered fiscally vulnerable.

Brooks argued that markets have been penalizing countries with elevated fiscal debt for some time.

Japan ended 2025 with debt-to-GDP above 200%, while the U.S. stood at 123.8%, according to Statista. France’s ratio was 115%, followed by the U.K. at 102% and China at 100%.

Switzerland stood apart, with federal debt at just 16% of GDP. Its comparatively modest increase in 10-year yields, combined with its lower debt burden, has contributed to views among some analysts that the Swiss franc is increasingly functioning as a haven and could gradually replace the Japanese yen as a preferred carry currency.

For bitcoin, the longer-term picture remains distinct from the bond market. Fiscal concerns, economic growth and inflation expectations can move bond yields and fiat currencies across markets such as the U.S., France and the U.K., but those forces have not produced a consistent long-term relationship with bitcoin’s price.

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