Bitcoin Recovery Stalls Before Bringing Last Underwater Holders Into Profit

Year-based bitcoin buyer groups and U.S. spot ETF investors provide potential levels of support and resistance as BTC falls below $84,000.

According to Checkonchain data, only one annual buyer cohort is still underwater: investors who purchased bitcoin in 2025. Their average cost basis is around $88,000, which could now act as a key resistance level as relatively recent holders may sell when prices approach their entry point.

Bitcoin reached a September monthly peak of about $87,500 before moving sideways and eventually slipping below $84,000 on Wednesday.

These volume-weighted annual cost bases have repeatedly functioned as support and resistance during the current market cycle. When bitcoin approaches the average purchase price of a particular cohort, some investors may sell to break even, while others may view the level as an opportunity to increase their holdings.

In May, bitcoin rose to roughly $82,100, reaching the average cost basis of the 2024 buyer cohort. The cryptocurrency then faced resistance and declined toward $60,000 before eventually breaking above the level in August.

The 2023 cohort has an average cost basis of approximately $65,000 and has repeatedly served as a support zone. During bitcoin’s decline toward $60,000 in February, this cohort’s cost basis was also around that level. It generally held as support throughout the 2026 bear market, although BTC briefly moved below it.

Investors who purchased bitcoin in 2026 have an average cost basis of about $73,500. This group has mostly remained profitable since late August, when bitcoin moved above that level.

The U.S. spot bitcoin ETF cost basis is another important level to monitor. It represents the average cost of deposits made into the funds and currently sits near $82,300. ETF investors only recently moved back into profit for the first time this year, meaning the level could provide support if bitcoin continues to decline.