Bitcoin on Unstable Terrain? Key Indicators Align With Signals That Predicted Trump Media’s Slide.

Market Signals Hint at Bitcoin Correction as Fed’s Hawkish Stance Weighs on Sentiment

Bitcoin’s (BTC) march above $90,000 has hit turbulence, with options market trends showing warning signs of a potential price retreat. Patterns in Deribit-listed BTC options closely resemble those seen before the steep decline in Trump Media (DJT) shares, raising concerns among traders about a possible pullback.

The implied probability distribution—an options-based metric indicating traders’ views on future price movements—has shifted toward lower price levels for bitcoin, according to crypto analytics platform BloFin.

“Market participants are showing a stronger consensus around downside risk for BTC,” noted Griffin Ardern, BloFin’s head of options trading, in a Friday update. “This mirrors the setup seen with DJT shares before their sharp correction earlier this month, suggesting traders may view BTC’s current levels as overheated.”

DJT shares surged to $54 in October, buoyed by optimism about Donald Trump’s pro-crypto platform and his anticipated presidential victory. However, prices have since halved to $27, signaling a shift in market sentiment. Bitcoin, too, has seen a meteoric rise following Trump’s win, climbing to a high of $93,000 before retreating to $88,100 at press time.

Hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has further pressured market sentiment. On Thursday, Powell emphasized a cautious approach to rate cuts, stating, “The economy’s strength allows us to proceed carefully, with no urgency to lower rates.” These comments dampened hopes for accelerated liquidity easing, a key driver of bitcoin’s recent rally.

Despite these concerns, the broader market retains a bullish stance on BTC. Many traders are positioning for further gains, anticipating a breakthrough above the $100,000 mark as optimism surrounding Trump’s crypto-friendly policies continues to bolster long-term sentiment.

“While near-term volatility is likely, bitcoin’s structural rally remains intact,” Ardern added. “We expect traders to continue buying the dips, especially as policy clarity from the new administration energy.