Bitcoin Nears Milestone Breakout Versus Nasdaq

Bitcoin Nears a Key Breakout Against the Nasdaq, Suggesting Shifting Market Dynamics

Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of a major breakout relative to the Nasdaq 100 Composite, with the current BTC/Nasdaq ratio standing at 4.96. This means that Bitcoin now commands almost five times the value of a single Nasdaq unit. The record high of 5.08 was set in January 2025, when Bitcoin reached its all-time peak of over $109,000.

The ratio’s consistent rise over various market cycles, particularly in 2017, 2021, and now 2025, highlights Bitcoin’s ongoing outperformance against traditional tech stocks, signaling a potential shift in market leadership.

Bitcoin has shown notable divergence from U.S. tech stocks across different timeframes. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has fallen just 6%, while the Nasdaq has dropped 15%. Since the U.S. presidential election in November 2024, Bitcoin has surged by 30%, in stark contrast to the Nasdaq’s 12% decline during the same period.

When compared to the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants, Bitcoin is still about 20% below its February 2025 all-time high. This suggests that while Bitcoin remains strong, the top-performing tech stocks are holding up better than the broader market.

Another notable indicator is MicroStrategy (MSTR), a well-known proxy for Bitcoin exposure. Since being included in the QQQ ETF on December 23, MSTR has only dropped 11%, while the ETF has fallen by over 16%. In 2025, MSTR has outperformed further, up 6% year-to-date, while the QQQ ETF has seen a 15% decline.