Bitcoin Momentum Gauge Flashes Bullish, Reinforcing Analyst Estimates of $140,000 to $200,000

Bitcoin’s MACD Indicator Flips Bullish, Fueling $150K to $200K Price Outlook

A trusted momentum indicator for Bitcoin (BTC) has turned positive, adding weight to analysts’ forecasts that the cryptocurrency could surge to between $150,000 and $200,000.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, which tracks the difference between the MACD line and its signal line, recently crossed above zero on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. The MACD line itself is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA of BTC’s price, while the signal line is the 9-period EMA of the MACD line.

A positive MACD histogram is widely regarded as a sign of shifting momentum from bearish to bullish, often serving as a reliable buy signal.

This recent shift follows Bitcoin’s rebound off the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), a key support level. Similar MACD flips in mid-2024 and early 2023 preceded notable rallies, underscoring the indicator’s strong predictive power.

For instance, the MACD turned positive in late October 2023, ahead of BTC’s breakout above $70,000 in November and the all-time highs reached in December.

Historically, this momentum indicator has signaled five major bullish runs over the last five years, with just one false positive in March 2022 that briefly trapped optimistic traders.

The current MACD signal aligns well with a bullish macroeconomic environment. Earlier this week, Standard Chartered highlighted that increased institutional interest could lift BTC prices as high as $200,000.

Bitfinex analysts, in a report shared with CoinDesk, also foresee Bitcoin evolving into a global macro reserve asset, projecting a price range between $150,000 and $180,000 over the next one to two years.