Asian equities rallied sharply, posting their strongest gains in months, while U.S. stock futures climbed after renewed signals that the Iran conflict could be nearing an end. The shift in sentiment came after Donald Trump indicated the war might conclude within two to three weeks, even without a formal deal with Tehran, and announced a forthcoming national address to provide further clarity.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 4%, its best performance since the conflict began, with broad-based gains across the region. Technology stocks led the advance, driving a strong rebound in risk assets. S&P 500 futures also moved higher, positioning the benchmark index for its biggest daily gain since May. In commodities, oil prices pared earlier declines as reports suggested the UAE could assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, potentially escalating its involvement.
Crypto markets, however, showed a more restrained response. Bitcoin traded near $67,950, up just 0.2% over the past 24 hours, continuing to move within its established range. Ether posted a stronger gain of 1.6% to $2,100, while XRP, dogecoin, and BNB edged modestly higher. Solana lagged, slipping 0.7% and extending its weekly losses.
The contrast between crypto and equities has become increasingly pronounced. While global stocks have reacted aggressively to geopolitical headlines, bitcoin has remained rangebound between $65,000 and $73,000, reflecting a lack of conviction despite improving sentiment.
Geopolitical developments remain the primary driver. Trump’s comments about a potential timeline for ending the war, along with his scheduled address, have fueled expectations of de-escalation. At the same time, Iran’s leadership has expressed willingness to end hostilities, though it continues to seek guarantees against future conflict.
Alongside macro developments, structural shifts in crypto are gaining attention. Morgan Stanley’s newly approved bitcoin ETF, priced at 14 basis points—significantly below the industry average—opens the door to a vast advisory network managing $6.2 trillion in assets. This could meaningfully expand institutional access to bitcoin exposure.
Analysts point to several catalysts that could support bitcoin in the near term, including increased institutional distribution, sustained inflows into crypto investment products, and a potential resolution to geopolitical tensions.
Meanwhile, gold has delivered mixed signals. The metal extended its gains for a fourth straight session, approaching $4,700, yet recently recorded its steepest monthly decline since 2008—an unusual pattern during an active conflict.
All eyes are now on Trump’s upcoming address. Markets will be looking for concrete signs of de-escalation, as sentiment may struggle to hold without clear evidence that the conflict is nearing resolution
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