Bitcoin hovers near $91,000 ahead of Trump tariff ruling: Asia Morning Briefing

Prediction markets are assigning low odds to a definitive U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, a backdrop that has previously sparked brief bouts of volatility in bitcoin before prices settled.

Bitcoin traded largely sideways around $91,000 during Asian hours as markets waited for the Supreme Court’s January 10 (U.S. time) decision on President Donald Trump’s tariff authority.

On Polymarket, traders put the probability at just 24% that the Court will clearly uphold Trump’s use of emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs.

The ruling carries significance for crypto markets because earlier tariff episodes have not resembled traditional macroeconomic shocks. CoinDesk Indices dubbed the first-quarter 2025 episode a “Tariff Tantrum,” characterized by sharp but temporary declines driven by liquidation cascades, reduced leverage demand, and momentum selling rather than broad, structural exits. CoinDesk research showed that trend-following strategies performed better by cutting exposure early, even as long-term participation remained resilient.

If the Court narrows or avoids endorsing Trump’s tariff authority, policy uncertainty could intensify, according to market watchers. Interactive Brokers economist Jose Torres said such an outcome would likely prompt the administration to seek alternative approaches.

“If the court blocks the tariffs, the administration is going to look for workarounds,” Torres told CNBC. “President Trump is highly motivated to push this agenda forward, even if the decision creates controversy.”

That scenario could lift long-term U.S. Treasury yields and tighten global liquidity — a combination that has historically weighed on crypto assets, which tend to react quickly to shifts in both.

The risk stems less from tariffs being rolled back entirely and more from the possibility that a constrained ruling forces reliance on slower, narrower, and more legally vulnerable trade measures, extending uncertainty rather than resolving it.

Still, CoinDesk Indices research suggests that once markets accept ambiguity as the baseline, bitcoin has tended to stabilize more quickly than equities, with correlations easing as policy uncertainty drags on.

For now, crypto traders in Asia — a region that stands to benefit significantly from a clean unwinding of Trump’s tariff regime — appear more focused on the duration of uncertainty than on the immediate outcome of the ruling.

Market Moves

BTC: Bitcoin was little changed near $91,000, edging slightly higher on the hour but still modestly lower over the past 24 hours.
ETH: Ether traded near $3,100, down more than 2% on the day despite gains over the past week.
Gold: HSBC said gold could rise to as much as $5,050 per ounce in early 2026 on geopolitical risk and rising debt, while cautioning about elevated volatility and a potential pullback later if risks fade or the Federal Reserve turns more hawkish.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.54% as investors looked ahead to China’s December inflation data, forecast at 0.8% year over year.