Bitcoin is beginning to show renewed strength against gold, with the BTC-to-gold ratio recovering toward 16 ounces after a deep drawdown earlier in the cycle.
As March enters its final stretch, bitcoin is marginally on track to avoid a record losing streak. The cryptocurrency is up roughly 2% for the month, holding above $68,000. However, any late downside could still result in six straight monthly declines—matching the longest losing run recorded between August 2018 and January 2019.
Long-term support in focus
From a technical standpoint, the 200-week moving average (200WMA) continues to serve as a critical support level. This indicator, which reflects bitcoin’s long-term trend by averaging prices over 200 weeks, has historically acted as a floor during bear markets.
In the current cycle, the 200WMA sits near $59,000. Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $60,000 in early February but has since stabilized above that level for nearly two months, reinforcing its importance. The 2022 bear market remains the only instance where BTC traded below this level for an extended period, from June through December.
Bitcoin regains ground vs. gold
Beyond its performance in dollar terms, bitcoin is also showing early signs of outperformance against Gold. The BTC-to-gold ratio is on track to post its first monthly gain in eight months, currently hovering near 16 ounces.
Gold is trading around $4,200 after recently falling toward $4,000, reflecting a roughly 5% daily drop. The metal has now declined more than 25% from its January peak, wiping out an estimated $7.5 trillion in market value.
Historically, each bitcoin cycle has seen progressively smaller peak-to-trough declines in the BTC-to-gold ratio. In the current cycle, bitcoin has fallen about 71% against gold from its December 2024 high. These drawdowns have typically lasted around 400 days, suggesting the current phase may be nearing its end.
Broader uptrend intact?
If bitcoin continues to hold above its 200-week moving average while strengthening relative to gold, it would reinforce the view that the broader bullish trend remains intact despite recent volatility.
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