Bitcoin Hesitates at Resistance, While Realized Price Trends Support Long-Term Upside

While bitcoin’s retreat from its $109,000 all-time high has raised questions about bullish momentum, deeper metrics are telling a more constructive story. A key indicator—realized price, which calculates the average on-chain acquisition cost across investor cohorts—suggests the market may have already moved through a critical capitulation phase and is now positioning for a rebound.

According to recent data, the 2025 investor cohort—those who began accumulating BTC this year—has an average cost basis of $93,266. With bitcoin currently trading at $105,000, this group is showing a healthy 12% gain, reflecting renewed confidence and resilience among new entrants.

Market Stress Has Eased, On-Chain Patterns Show

Bitcoin’s brief drop below the 2025 realized price during the Q1 downturn marked a significant inflection point. That dip, historically associated with capitulation and investor exhaustion, ended on April 22, when BTC reclaimed its realized price. Since then, price action has stabilized, and realized gains are once again trending positive.

This pattern isn’t new. In prior cycles:

2024: The post-ETF rally saw realized prices briefly breached, but it was the summer sell-off to $49,000—triggered by macro volatility—that represented a deeper capitulation.
2023: Bitcoin hovered near its cost basis for much of the year, only breaking below it briefly during the banking sector turmoil in March.

Beyond All-Time Highs: Realized Price Tells the Real Story

Focusing solely on nominal price peaks—whether $20K in 2017, $69K in 2021, or the recent $109K—can be misleading. In contrast, realized price provides a grounded, cycle-aware view of market sentiment.

When BTC first hit $20,000, realized price was only $5,149, exposing the gap between price and conviction. In bear markets, that gap closes. The 2018 bottom at $3,200, where realized price aligned closely with market price, marked the end of a cycle and a base for future rallies.

The steadily climbing aggregate cost basis today reflects long-term capital commitment and broader market maturity. It also shows that each cycle is bringing in new layers of investor support, raising the floor beneath price action.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s recent price action may look uncertain, but its on-chain fundamentals suggest strength. The reclaiming of realized price levels by recent buyers, coupled with a rising cost basis across cohorts, points to a market that’s reset and is now building a more stable foundation.

Rather than focus on whether BTC will retest its highs immediately, investors may find more value in tracking realized price levels, which have historically been reliable indicators of both risk and opportunity.