Bitcoin outpaces gold and equities after crises, Mercado Bitcoin research finds
Bitcoin has consistently outperformed both gold and equities in the aftermath of major global shocks, according to new research from Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin.
The study, led by head of research Rony Szuster, analyzed 60-day windows following key economic and geopolitical events, including the COVID-19 outbreak and U.S. tariff escalations. In every case reviewed, Bitcoin delivered stronger returns than both gold and the S&P 500.
One example cited in the report followed the announcement of sweeping U.S. tariffs in April last year. Over the next two months, Bitcoin surged 24%, compared with an 8% rise in gold and a 4% gain in the S&P 500.
A similar dynamic played out during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. In the 60 days that followed, Bitcoin climbed 21%, once again outperforming traditional assets.
Szuster cautioned that short-term market reactions during crises can distort the bigger picture. In the immediate aftermath of a shock, investors often sell assets to raise liquidity or reduce exposure, which can temporarily drag down prices across the board—including those typically seen as safe havens.
Despite this initial volatility, the study found that Bitcoin has consistently rebounded and gone on to outperform in the recovery phase.
That pattern appears to be repeating amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. According to Szuster, Bitcoin is currently the only one of the three assets in positive territory during the latest bout of market stress.
Since the conflict began, Bitcoin has gained more than 2.2%, rising from around $65,800 to roughly $67,300. In contrast, gold has dropped approximately 11%, while the S&P 500 has fallen 4.4%, marking its steepest monthly decline since 2022.
Szuster added that, despite its volatility, Bitcoin remains the best-performing asset of the past decade, reinforcing its growing relevance in global investment portfolios.
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