Bitcoin Gains Amid Oil Spike and Falling Stocks

Bitcoin moved higher during European trading hours, outperforming several traditional assets as geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices rattled global markets.

The largest cryptocurrency gained about 2.8% since midnight UTC, recovering after a sharp drop in global markets when futures trading opened earlier in the day.

Meanwhile, equity markets struggled. Futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 both declined more than 1.5% since midnight as oil prices spiked to as high as $115 per barrel, their highest level since June 2022. Precious metals also weakened, with gold falling 1.6% and silver slipping 1.1%, undermining their typical safe-haven appeal as investors moved toward the U.S. dollar.

Despite the broader market turmoil, sentiment around bitcoin appears to be improving. The cryptocurrency has remained relatively stable amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the supply disruptions affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to crypto trading firm QCP Capital, bitcoin’s role as a financial hedge may still be evolving.

“While BTC has yet to fully establish itself as digital gold, its real-world utility as a digital escape route is becoming increasingly relevant—particularly in Gulf nations experiencing currency volatility and political uncertainty,” the firm said in a note released Monday.

Derivatives positioning

Volatility in the market triggered widespread liquidations across crypto derivatives. Exchanges have closed nearly $400 million worth of crypto futures positions in the past 24 hours, with traders betting against oil suffering the largest losses as crude surged to $115 per barrel.

Open interest in bitcoin futures remains close to weekly lows at around 650,000 BTC, indicating the derivatives market has not fully participated in the latest price rally. By contrast, open interest in Ether futures increased to roughly 13 million tokens.

Open interest in XRP rose to 1.72 billion tokens—the highest level since late February—while Solana also saw a modest rise in open interest, signaling fresh capital entering those markets.

At the same time, open interest in several other tokens—including PAX Gold, Avalanche, and Litecoin—declined over the past day, suggesting investors are reducing risk exposure during the price rebound.

Market volatility expectations remain relatively stable. Thirty-day implied volatility indexes for bitcoin and ether have held steady, indicating calm conditions in crypto derivatives markets despite turbulence in oil and Asian equities.

On the derivatives platform Deribit, put options for bitcoin and ether continue to trade at a premium to calls, reflecting ongoing demand for downside protection. However, the premium remains similar to last week’s levels, suggesting that the oil rally has not significantly increased hedging demand.

Bitcoin’s implied volatility curve also remains in backwardation, meaning traders expect greater price swings in the near term than further out—a sign of uncertainty surrounding the evolving geopolitical situation.

Token market activity

Altcoins broadly performed well overnight. Privacy-focused tokens such as Dash, Monero, and Zcash recorded gains ranging from about 3.8% to 5.2%.

Decentralized finance tokens also outperformed. Ether.fi and Morpho both rose more strongly than bitcoin and ether during the same period.

Momentum across the broader altcoin market appears to be improving. The “Altcoin Season” indicator tracked by CoinMarketCap has climbed to 36 out of 100, significantly higher than its February low of 22.

Among sector benchmarks, the CoinDesk Computing Select Index—which includes assets such as Chainlink and Bittensor—was the best performer over the past 24 hours, rising 2.7%. It was followed by the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Index, which gained 0.92% since Sunday morning.

On the downside, the institutional-focused token Canton Network Token dropped 3.4% over the past day. Meanwhile, Worldcoin—a project associated with Sam Altman—declined about 2%.

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