Bitcoin Falls Behind S&P 500, but History Shows It Could Bounce Back

Bitcoin Trails S&P 500 and Gold, But Historical Trends Suggest a Rebound

Bitcoin has recently underperformed as gold continues its record-breaking surge, climbing past $3,800 per ounce on Tuesday. U.S. equities, led by the S&P 500, have also been hitting near-record levels, just shy of 6,700, highlighting a period of divergence for the largest cryptocurrency.

Even with BTC trading below $115,000, the market remains bullish, though its trajectory has occasionally separated from that of U.S. stocks.

Earlier in the cycle, divergences were evident:

• March–July 2024: S&P 500 rose from 4,000 to 4,600, while Bitcoin dropped from just under $30,000 to $25,000.
• April–October 2024: The S&P 500 climbed 5,200 to 6,000, yet Bitcoin’s rally only resumed in November, coinciding with presidential election results.

Since May 2025, Bitcoin has consolidated in the $110,000–$120,000 range as the S&P 500 steadily advanced. August saw BTC briefly reach new all-time highs, only to retreat to the lower end of its prior range.

Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin often realigns with broader markets after periods of lag. Analysts believe this trend points to a likely catch-up with gold and U.S. equities, signaling potential upside for the cryptocurrency in the coming months.

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