Bitcoin Eyeing $200K by 2025 Close? Market Cycle Suggests Volatile Months Ahead

Bitcoin Demand Climbs, Signaling Potential $200K Rally in Q4 – 3/10/2025

Bitcoin demand has been steadily growing since July, setting the stage for a possible late-year surge toward $200,000.

According to CryptoQuant, apparent demand is rising by roughly 62,000 BTC per month—a trend similar to previous Q4 periods in 2020, 2021, and 2024, which preceded significant price rallies. Sustained demand growth has historically supported sharp upward moves.

Whales and ETFs are driving much of this momentum. Large-holder balances are increasing at an annualized pace of 331,000 BTC, exceeding the 255,000 BTC recorded in Q4 2024 and the 238,000 BTC in Q4 2020, and contrasting with the 197,000 BTC contraction in 2021. ETFs could add further fuel, having bought 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024—a 71% jump in holdings—with the potential to increase allocations into year-end.

Price momentum remains critical. On-chain analysis identifies the Trader’s Realized Price of $116,000 as a key threshold. A decisive move above this level would mark the start of the “BULL” phase in the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, opening a Q4 valuation band between $160,000 and $200,000.

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator compares Bitcoin’s spot price to realized price metrics, reflecting investors’ average cost basis on-chain. Prices above these levels indicate a bullish phase with rising momentum and profits for holders; prices below signal a bearish phase with stress and unrealized losses.

Market conditions entering October resemble last year’s setup. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has held between 40 and 50, historically marking the edge of bullish territory. In 2024, the index surpassed 50 at the start of Q4, just before Bitcoin rallied from around $70,000 to $100,000.

With demand strengthening and momentum building, traders are closely watching for a repeat of last year’s late-year rally.