Bitcoin drifts toward $70,000 as on-chain data signals a bear market, with traders expecting the Fed to hold rates in April: Asia Morning Briefing.

On-chain data signals waning demand as Bitcoin drifts in mid-$70,000s

On-chain metrics point to fading demand and tighter liquidity, while prediction markets show little expectation of near-term rate cuts.

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily recap of key stories during U.S. hours, with market moves and analysis. For a deeper look at U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin enters the Asian trading day flashing full bear-market signals. Prices remain in the mid-$70,000s as global equity markets search for direction.

CryptoQuant’s weekly report frames the weakness as structural, not cyclical. Its Bull Score Index sits at zero, and Bitcoin trades far below its October peak. The market is no longer digesting gains; instead, it is operating with a thinner buyer base and tightening liquidity.

Glassnode data reinforces the picture, showing weak spot volumes and a demand vacuum: selling pressure isn’t being absorbed, suggesting participation is fading rather than panic driving the sell-off.

Institutional flows highlight the shift. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, net accumulators at this time last year, are now net sellers, creating a year-over-year demand gap of tens of thousands of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium has stayed negative since October, signaling muted U.S. investor interest despite lower prices. Historically, strong U.S. spot demand has fueled bull phases—currently, that engine is idling.

Liquidity conditions are tightening beneath the surface. Stablecoin expansion, which typically supports risk appetite, has stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023. Long-term demand growth has collapsed from last year’s highs, showing that participation, not just leverage, is fading. Bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with on-chain valuation bands clustering major support in the $60,000–$70,000 corridor.

On the macro side, Bitcoin is increasingly trading like high-beta software rather than digital gold. Prediction markets show traders heavily leaning toward no change at the Fed’s April meeting, with only modest expectations for a June cut—limiting prospects for near-term liquidity relief.

The policy narrative is further complicated by politics. President Donald Trump recently said during an NBC interview that a Fed chair seeking rate hikes “would not have gotten the job,” tempering optimism about central bank independence.

For Asia, the result is a market defined less by shocks than by absence, where bounces remain possible but conviction is thin.

Market Movements

• BTC: Bitcoin drifted lower into the mid-$70,000s after briefly testing support, with rebounds fading quickly as spot demand remained thin and tech stocks stayed under pressure.
• ETH: Ether hovered just above the low $2,000s, struggling to gain momentum as risk sentiment softened and flows stayed muted across major exchanges.
• Gold: Gold rebounded toward $5,000–$5,100, extending a volatile recovery fueled by safe-haven buying amid U.S.–Iran tensions and softer private payroll data, while traders reassessed the Fed outlook under Trump’s new chair pick.
• Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged lower by roughly 0.3% as chip and tech heavyweights tracked Wall Street’s sell-off, though broader Japanese equities held up relatively well compared with regional peers.

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