Bitcoin Crash “Off the Table,” Four-Year Cycle Concludes: Arthur Hayes

Bitcoin’s historical four-year market cycle may no longer apply, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CIO of Maelstrom. Shifts in global monetary policy and expanding fiat liquidity, he argues, are set to sustain the current bull market.

Hayes noted that prior Bitcoin bear markets—in 2014, 2018, and 2022—were primarily triggered by monetary tightening, not the quadrennial halving events. On each occasion, BTC fell 70%–80% from peak bull-market levels. This echoes earlier analysis from CoinDesk, which linked the four-year cycle more to fiat liquidity fluctuations than mining reward reductions.

“Traders look at the four-year pattern and expect the bull run to end,” Hayes wrote in his essay “Long Live the King!” “That cycle is dead. The incoming surge in fiat liquidity will keep Bitcoin rising.”

Halving Explained
The Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, cutting the reward miners receive per block. Historically, this event has coincided with a bull run, followed by a bear market 16–18 months later. The most recent, fourth halving took place in April 2024, prompting concerns among some traders that a downturn may be near.

Why This Bull Run is Different
Hayes argues the current market is unlike previous cycles because monetary policy is easing rather than tightening:

In the U.S., President Trump favors policies aimed at boosting growth, unlocking home equity, and reducing debt.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4% in September 2025, with more cuts expected over the next year.
Japan may implement ultra-stimulatory policies under its new prime minister.
China’s focus on ending deflation suggests it will not reduce liquidity aggressively.

“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. Money will be cheaper and more plentiful. Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future,” Hayes said.

With global liquidity set to expand and accommodative monetary conditions prevailing, Hayes believes the traditional four-year halving cycle no longer dictates Bitcoin’s price trajectory, leaving the current bull market poised to continue.