Bitcoin Could Climb to $135K by December, Says Citi—$199K in an Optimistic Case

Citi Sees Bitcoin at $135K by Year-End, Bullish Case Points to $199K

Citi has issued an updated year-end forecast for Bitcoin, projecting a base-case target of $135,000 as adoption accelerates and spot ETF inflows drive demand. In the most optimistic scenario, the Wall Street bank sees BTC climbing to $199,000 by December. A bearish outcome, shaped by macro headwinds, could pull prices down to $64,000.

The revised projections reflect a refreshed valuation framework that factors in three major forces: network adoption, macroeconomic conditions, and institutional capital via ETFs.

Citi analysts estimate a 20% increase in user growth, combined with network effects, could justify a $75,000 valuation. Soft equity markets and weak gold performance subtract about $3,200 from the estimate, while $15 billion in additional ETF flows add roughly $63,000 — yielding the $135,000 base case.

The report underscores the growing impact of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in early 2024. Citi attributes more than 40% of recent BTC price movements to ETF-driven inflows, making institutional demand a key variable in its model.

While user adoption remains the foundation of Citi’s outlook, the bank noted a structural shift in the market as crypto becomes more integrated with traditional finance. Index inclusion, greater regulatory clarity, and ETF access are amplifying capital flows and shaping price dynamics.

Citi also flagged upside risks to its forecast, citing faster-than-expected ETF demand and persistent network activity — a sign that Bitcoin’s growth trajectory may extend beyond initial assumptions.

“Investor flows and capital allocation decisions now play as big a role as technology adoption in determining BTC’s direction,” the report concluded.