Billions remain parked in bitcoin ETFs amid the market crash, but the apparent resilience hides tougher underlying dynamics.

U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs are still managing about $85 billion in assets even after bitcoin’s steep decline — but analysts say that headline figure may not be as bullish as it appears.

Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $126,000 in early October before tumbling to nearly $60,000 in recent weeks, cutting its value roughly in half. Despite that drop, the 11 spot bitcoin ETFs trading in the U.S. have seen cumulative net outflows of just $8.5 billion. The funds continue to hold around $85 billion in assets under management, equal to more than 6% of bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Some market observers have pointed to the relatively limited outflows as evidence of strong investor conviction. However, others argue that the resilience is largely structural rather than directional.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said ETF ownership is heavily concentrated among market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds that typically run hedged, market-neutral strategies.

In a note to clients, Thielen explained that the durability of ETF assets reflects “the structural nature of ETF ownership,” with large allocations held by liquidity providers and arbitrage funds, alongside longer-term institutional investors with low portfolio turnover.

He pointed to late-2025 13F filings showing that between 55% and 75% of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust — which manages about $61 billion — is owned by market makers and arbitrage-driven hedge funds. These investors typically hedge their exposure, meaning they are not necessarily expressing outright bullish views on bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Market makers facilitate trading by providing continuous buy and sell quotes, profiting from the bid-ask spread while seeking to remain neutral to price swings. Arbitrage funds, meanwhile, aim to exploit price differences between related markets, such as spot ETFs and futures contracts, by holding offsetting positions. As a result, their activity does not inherently inject bullish or bearish pressure into the broader market.

Thielen added that market makers trimmed exposure by roughly $1.6 billion to $2.4 billion during the fourth quarter, when bitcoin was trading near $88,000, citing softer speculative demand and reduced arbitrage inventory needs.

While ETF assets have remained substantial through the downturn, the stability may reflect trading mechanics and hedged positioning rather than unwavering long-term optimism about bitcoin’s price.

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